Anna Rathbun, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services LLC, highlighted the slowing employment market, which is impacting small business owners and job seekers. Rathbun noted that the June labor market update from BLS continued to show weakness despite strong headline nonfarm payroll gains. This trend could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates, but also brings uncertainty. The June CBIZ Small Business Employment Index, which tracks payroll and hiring trends for over 2,900 small businesses with 300 or fewer employees, reported a seasonally adjusted decrease of 0.08%.
The BLS report for June indicated a loss of 2,400 jobs in accommodation and food services, while the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry also faced challenges. In contrast, the most significant recruiting increases were observed in administrative and support services, retail, and technology and life sciences. In total, BLS reported a 206,000 job increase in the private sector, while the national unemployment rate increased marginally to 4.1%. A modest increase of 5,000 positions was observed in the ADP employment report, which surveys small enterprises with 49 or fewer employees. The report indicates a stagnant employment market for small businesses and prospective employees.
